Does History Repeat Itself?

My brother Robb recently sent me a link to a Joe Rogan podcast comparing the Lincoln and Kennedy assassinations. Robb is a lot younger than I am, and I don’t think he (or Rogan for that matter) was aware that lists of that sort have been floating around for over sixty years. Some of the items on the list are twisted to fit the comparative mode, and others are flat-out wrong, but it still makes for interesting reading. There was even a popular song in 1966 that used this list. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln%E2%80%93Kennedy_coincidences_urban_legend)

I decided to try my hand at this sort of historical comparison, looking at two other leaders who operated about a century apart.

(1) Both men tried to overthrow their legally elected governments.

–In 1923, Adolf Hitler led a group of fanatical followers in an insurrection he hoped would end the Weimar Republic and establish Hitler as the head of the government. He was caught, convicted of treason, and sent to prison for a five-year term. He was released early because the government assumed that, since he had been thoroughly disgraced, he would no longer be a threat to the country. While in prison, he formulated a detailed plan to ensure that his second attempt would not fail.

–In January 2021, Trump encouraged a group of fanatical followers to gather in Washington for an insurrection he hoped would override the legitimate election results and establish Trump as the head of the government. Trump was caught and impeached, but his fellow members of the Republican party refused to embarrass him with a conviction. They assumed that, since his term had ended and he had been thoroughly disgraced, he would no longer be a threat to the country. After his defeat, Trump was indicted for numerous crimes, and convicted of many. While in exile from office, he formulated a detailed plan to ensure that his second attempt would not fail.

(2) Both men built their followings by stirring up anger, focusing on grievances, and pointing to minority groups as the cause of all of their problems.

–After his release from prison, Hitler slowly built a following by criticizing the government for signing the humiliating Versailles peace treaty after WWI. In 1929, world-wide economic problems caused the Great Depression, which hit Germany hard. Hitler attacked the government in power for allowing it to happen and blamed the economic problems on Jews, Gypsies, gays, those with mental disabilities, and anyone else he regarded as “inferior.” He used a technique called the “Big Lie” to assert that Jews were responsible for the Depression and all other problems facing the nation. Appealing to people’s suspicions and racial hatred, he assured the country, that if he were in power, he would get rid of all Jews and return the nation to greatness. He assured the German people that they would no longer have to think, that they merely had to trust him and he would take care of everything. His followers became known as Nazis, chanted slogans suggested by their Fuhrer at hate-filled rallies, and wore matching armbands featuring a swastika.

–After losing by 7 million votes in 2020, Trump continued to build his following by falsely claiming the election had been stolen from him, despite all evidence to the contrary. The U.S. experienced a brief period of inflation caused by world-wide economic problems resulting from Covid and supply-train issues. Biden tackled those problems aggressively, and the U.S. brought inflation under control faster than any other nation. Still, Trump attacked the government and convinced many Americans that things were worse than they actually were. He also blamed all of the nation’s problems on Blacks, gays, immigrants, and anyone else he regarded as “inferior.” He used a technique called the “Big Lie” to assert that all immigrants were murderers, rapists, and terrorists. Appealing to people’s suspicions and racial hatred, he assured the country, that if he were in power, he would get rid of all immigrants and return the nation to greatness. He told the American people that they would no longer have to vote, that they merely had to trust him and he would take care of everything. His followers became known as MAGA, chanted slogans suggested by their leader at hate-filled rallies, and wore matching red hats featuring those letters.

(3) Once in power, both men consolidated power and moved to eliminate all opposition

–Hitler’s Nazi Party won control of the government in 1933, despite having the support of less than half of the people. He cowed and bullied the rest of the government into supporting him with various threats. Once he had control of the courts and the legislature, he could do as he wished, ruling with autocratic impunity. He quickly moved to silence any opposition, attacking intellectuals, putting pressure on universities, intimidating or taking over newspapers, and using a new media source, radio, to spread his propaganda messages. Freedom of speech and the press came to an end, and it became illegal to even make a joke about Hitler. The device he used to instill fear and compliance in the German people was a paramilitary group called Sturmabteilung, orStorm Troopers. They wore matching brown shirts, swastika armbands, and used violence to silence Hitler’s opponents. Many of these young men were recruited from the ranks of the unemployed and given a club to use against anyone who dared to protest. They operated in gangs, even killing those who resisted. In a typical tactic, in 1933, Hitler had the Brownshirts burn the center of government, the Reichstag building, but declared the fire to be started by “communists” in order to gain even more power and authority. He then blocked all attempts to conduct an independent investigation of the crime.

–Trump’s Republican Party won control of the government in 2025, despite having the support of less than half of the people. He cowed and bullied the rest of the government into supporting him with various threats. Once he had control of the courts and the legislature, he could do as he wished, ruling with autocratic impunity. He quickly moved to silence opposition, attacking intellectuals, putting pressure on universities, intimidating newspapers, and using new media types, the internet and one-sided, submissive cable news sources, to spread his propaganda messages. Freedom of speech and the press have been seriously compromised, and he has used his influence to get those who make jokes about Trump removed from the airwaves. The device he uses to instill fear and compliance in the American people is a paramilitary group called Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE. They wear masks and civilian clothing, ICE insignias, and use violence to make arrests while abusing America’s guaranteed civil rights. Many of these young men were recruited from the ranks of the unemployed and, with little training, given weapons to use against anyone who dared to protest. ICE is now the largest and best-funded law-enforcement agency in American history. In a typical tactic, just this week, Trump’s ICE agents murdered an unarmed mother of three, but justified the action by labeling her a “domestic terrorist” in order to gain even more power and authority. Trump then blocked all attempts to conduct an independent investigation of the crime, saying that federal authorities would investigate the murder. That’s a bit like having John Wilkes Booth investigate Lincoln’s assassination.

(4) Both men admired a contemporary dictator and copied their tactics.

–Hitler studied Benito Mussolini’s rise to power in Italy in the 1920s and emulated his style. Mussolini called his form of dictatorship “fascism,” using extreme nationalism to unify his following. Fascism is a form of autocracy that wins the support of the wealthy and corporations by promising them great affluence under the dictator’s leadership. Mussolini opposed labor unions and gave enormous financial advantages to corporations and the rich. Under this alliance between big business and the dictator, millionaires prospered at the expense of the poor and the middle class. When Hitler adopted fascism, he changed Mussolini’s Blackshirts to Brownshirts, civil rights and freedoms were dramatically undermined, and the wealthy Germans eagerly fell in line.

–Trump studied Vladimir Putin’s rise to power in Russia and has tried to emulate his style. Trump employs a modern form of fascism, winning the support of the wealthy and corporations (especially oil companies) by promising them great affluence under his leadership. He opposes labor unions and gives incredible financial advantages to corporations and the rich. Under this alliance between big business and the autocratic president, billionaires have prospered enormously at the expense of the poor and the middle class. When Trump adopted Putin’s dictatorial style, he changed the Russian secret police to ICE agents, civil rights and freedoms have been dramatically undermined, and wealthy Americans have eagerly fallen in line.

(5) Both men used their power for purposes of imperial expansion.

–In 1938, Hitler invaded Austria and annexed it to Germany to gain natural resources and in order to distract from the way he had trampled on German civil rights. He immediately issued propaganda statements to justify the illegal invasion, claiming it was necessary for national security, and threatening to do the same thing to the Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. He did it knowing full well that Austria was vulnerable and that no one would try to stop him. He followed through on his promises of further military aggression, and in 1939, with the invasion of Poland, England and France finally declared war, after having waited so long that Hitler was almost too powerful to stop. Over fifty million people, more than half of them civilians, were killed in the ensuing world war.

–In recent days, Trump has invaded Venezuela to gain natural resources (oil) and in order to distract from a weak economy and the fact that he has been closely linked to a pedophile ring conducted by his close friend, Jeffrey Epstein. He immediately issued propaganda statements to justify the illegal invasion, claiming it was necessary for national security, and threatened to do the same thing to Colombia, Greenland, and Canada. He did it knowing full well that Venezuela was vulnerable and that no one would try to stop him.

At this point, we don’t know if Trump will follow through on his threats or if his reckless actions will escalate into a full-scale war the way it did in Hitler’s day. If it does, far more than fifty million will die, given the power of current weapons. Nor do we know if we are witnessing the end of our 250-year-old democracy in the U.S. The signs are certainly there for those willing to see them, and they have been for some time. At the least, it will take a generation or more to repair the damage done by this deranged and disgraceful human being. Hitler’s name has become synonymous with “evil,” and Trump seems determined to follow that same path. The only question is: What will it take before the American people and the Republican Party stand up and try to stop him? I only hope that we do so before it’s too late.

Ukraine Crisis

This morning, I woke up to the expected news that the Russian megalomaniac, Vladimir Putin, has started the invasion of neighboring Ukraine. As a historian, this occurrence has brough ominous echoes of past events that shattered the world. It’s time for a little history lesson and a brief explanation of how this military action in Europe might affect us.

In 1935, Benito Mussolini, the Fascist dictator of Italy ordered the invasion of the African nation of Ethiopia without a declaration of war. As reasons for the invasion, his propaganda argued that Italy had a right to colonize Abyssinia, as Ethiopia was once known, because of their ancient cultural ties. By that, he meant that Abyssinia was once part of the Roman Empire, many hundreds of years earlier. The real reason was that Italy was struggling with economic problems and unemployment during the Great Depression, and Ethiopia had defeated Italy in an 1896 attempt to take over the African nation. Mussolini figured that a military invasion would provide jobs to Italians in the military and raw materials for his factories, and an easy victory would increase Italy’s military prestige and national pride. It was indeed an easy victory, as Italy used modern weapons, tanks, and airplanes against a country using spears, bows, and obsolete weapons left over from the 1896 conflict. Ethiopian emperor, Haile Selassie, appeared before the League of Nations (the forerunner to the United Nations) begging for assistance. In an impassioned speech, he said, “It is us today. It will be you tomorrow.” Preoccupied with the Depression and wishing to avoid war at all costs, the U.S. and the other European powers did nothing. Italy, Japan, and Germany were emboldened by the lack of a response, and World War II drew inexorably closer.

Three years later, in 1938, Adolf Hitler, the Fascist dictator of Germany, invaded Austria, arguing that he was helping the Austrian people, who needed protection from rioters and wanted to become a part of the German Empire. This event became known as the Anschluss, or annexation. His propaganda cited the decades-earlier 1871 unification of German in which Chancellor Otto Von Bismarck had excluded Austria from the new nation of Germany. The real reason for the invasion was to provide jobs for the unemployed, raw materials for his factories, and to increase national pride and the prestige of the German military. He presented the annexation as Austria having “invited” him to take over, but, in fact, he had issued an ultimatum: allow Germany to take over or face a military attack. Once he had control, Hitler immediately rounded up all dissenters, Gypsies, and Jews, sending them to concentration camps. Eventually, the Holocaust was extended to Austria. The League of Nations, the U.S., and the European powers did nothing, thus encouraging Hitler and Japan to become more aggressive. Later that year, Hitler used the same arguments to annex a part of Czechoslovakia called the Sudetenland. World War II drew inexorably closer.

In 2014, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin invaded and annexed a part of Ukraine called the Crimea. He argued that he was protecting those people and that the Crimean peninsula had belonged to the Russian Empire since the 1700s. Ukraine had been a part of the USSR, as Communist Russia was known from 1917 until 1991. It has been an separate nation since it broke away from the USSR in 1991. Putin has wanted it back since he first became president, and he has repeatedly said that he believes it is a part of Russia, not an independent nation. For the past few years, he prepared to invade the rest of the Ukraine, citing cultural ties dating back centuries. The reality is that Russia is struggling economically and a war would provide jobs for the unemployed, raw materials for his factories, and would increase national pride and help people forget their economic problems. This morning, he attacked more than a dozen places at once, including the capital city of Kyiv. Unlike the appeasement of the 1930s, the U.S. and President Biden have led efforts to unify opposition to Russia among European and NATO allies. Thus far, those efforts have been primarily in the form of economic and diplomatic sanctions, but that situation could change now that Russia has actually invaded.

What sort of a man is Putin? He was acting President of Russia from 1999-2000, then he served two terms as the democratically elected President from 2000-2008. The Russian constitution  barred him from running for a third consecutive 4-year term, so he had himself appointed Prime Minister for 4 years in order to continue running the nation. Then came two more terms, now 6-years each, as President. In 2020, he changed the constitution so that he could succeed himself for two more 6-year terms, effectively making him President-for-Life. He has gradually removed all elements of the government that would qualify it as a democracy and established himself as a dictator in an increasingly authoritarian government. His lies and propaganda have returned Russia to a nation which cannot ever be believed. There have been many pro-democracy protests against him, but political opponents, protestors, journalists, and those calling for free elections have been jailed, intimidated and otherwise silenced. He has worked vigorously to repress LBGT groups and gays. Like Mussolini and Hitler, he has secretly organized well-trained paramilitary groups to quietly enforce his will.

Before the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, Putin was a long-time member of the KGB, the Soviet intelligence agency. As such, his entire objective was to undermine the United States and weaken the primary opponent of the USSR. He has continued to pursue that objective as President. He has used computer technology to hack into financial institutions in the US to disrupt our economy. The US intelligence community discovered the extent of this hacking, reporting that Putin interfered in various ways with the 2016 election to help his friend Donald Trump get elected. In a famous Trump press conference in which he was questioned about this, the American president stated that he accepted Putin’s denials of such activity over our own CIA and intelligence reports, saying “He said he didn’t do it, and I believe him.” Like the weak-kneed politicians of the 1930s whose inaction allowed Hitler, Mussolini, and Japan grow stronger and bolder, Trump fawned over Putin’s every move while President.

It is clear that Trump admired the dictator’s power and wished that he, too, could have shut down the media and arrested those who spoke out against him. Just yesterday, while the democracies of the world lined up against Russia and their impending invasion of Ukraine, Trump referred to Putin as a “genius,” and once again expressed admiration for his military power. His former secretary of state Mike Pompeo recently  called Putin “Very shrewd, very capable” adding, “I have enormous respect for him.” And the Trump mouthpiece on Fox, Tucker Carlson, indicated that he was rooting for Putin and that there was more to fear from the Democrats than Russia. History will deal harshly with Trump, Pompeo, Carlson, and others who support the sort of naked aggression exhibited by Putin. In the 1930s, such prominent Americans as Charles Lindbergh and Henry Ford expressed admiration for Hitler and conducted rallies in support of the Nazis—right up to the attack on Pearl Harbor. Those men and others like them saw their reputations destroyed by that support. Those of you as old as I am will remember the furor that erupted when actress Jane Fonda was seen supporting the North Vietnamese people during the Vietnam War.

Why should we care about all of this? How will this war affect us? First of all, the entire world will feel the economic impact. An increase in inflation and gas prices is certain. These two things have been on the rise due to shortages and supply-line problems for some time now. Russia controls a significant share of the world’s oil. That supply line will stop flowing today, driving oil prices up considerably. The stock market, which always reacts badly to the uncertainty of a war,  will take a huge hit and this downturn will not be a short-term thing. Putin has already begun using Russia’s hacking skills to disrupt Ukraine’s financial institutions. If, the US gets involved, Russia may turn those skills against our banks, the stock market, etc. This will cause more economic distress. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, our mutual-defense alliance, so the US will not be sending troops to fight there. Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, however, are suddenly vulnerable and they are members of NATO. We will be sending military forces to beef up our defenses of them and other Eastern European allies. While we won’t be directly fighting in Ukraine, we will probably be aiding the people of that nation with supplies and weapons in a revival of the “surrogate wars” of the Cold War. Then there is the fear that China will take advantage of this war to invade Taiwan. Like Putin’s attitude toward Ukraine, China has always regarded the island nation as theirs, rather than the independent nation it has been since 1949. In short, this regional conflict could easily spread to military confrontations around the world. Of course, the concern for which no one dares speak is the fact that Russia is a major nuclear power. Should the war go badly for them, Putin is unstable enough to use them—and he won’t confine them to Ukraine.

When Joe Biden took office last January, he inherited the worst set of crises faced by any new President since FDR. Today, that situation grew worse by several magnitudes. Every other time in our history that the US was faced with a serious threat to our security, the American people have forgotten their differences and banded together. If that can happen once more, perhaps some good can come out of this dire situation.