Tag: Covid

What Happens Next?

It took a while, but the votes have all been counted, and the election is finally over. It was certainly no landslide or “Blue Wave” as some were predicting, but the final decision was clear and decisive. If it didn’t seem that way, that’s because we live in an era in which close elections are the norm. A few points of historical perspective:

1) Because of the heavy turnout (over 65%), both candidates received more votes than any other person in history. Biden won by over 6 million votes, 51% to 47%. Biden also had a solid majority in the electoral college, 306-232, the exact same numbers as Trump had in 2016, when he claimed that he had an overwhelming mandate.

2) While the 4% margin might seem thin, only three elections since 1960 have seen the winner claim more than 53% of the vote: LBJ in 1964, Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1984. All of the other 12 elections have been decided by a less than 6% margin.

3) It is difficult for an incumbent president to lose a re-election campaign, as only four have managed to accomplish the feat in the past century, Herbert Hoover in 1928, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Bush Sr. in 1992, and now Trump. In all of those cases, the incumbent president was seen as failing to take decisive action or deal effectively with a crisis. For Hoover it was the Great Depression, Carter had the Iran Hostage situation, Bush had a serious recession, and Trump had Covid and an economic implosion.

4) A little historical trivia: Trump is only the 3rd man since the Civil War (William Jennings Bryan, 1896 & 1900, and Thomas Dewey, 1944 & ’48, are the other two) to lose two the popular vote in two consecutive elections.

Okay, so what happens now. Historians are loathe to predict the future, as am I, especially when dealing with this most unpredictable of presidents. Again, however, we can look to the past for a hint of what to expect.

—Prediction number 1: The economy will improve. That’s a pretty safe guess, since we’re in a mess at the moment. While Trump has been proclaiming “the greatest economy in history,” job losses have been astronomical, lives hang in the balance, and Congress has failed to enact a second relief bill. Before we see any improvement, however, we will see some dark days ahead. Trump’s failure to even acknowledge the Covid Virus, let alone do anything about it, has created this incredible spike in the number of cases and deaths. That will force state governments to reinstate shut-down measures, a process that has already begun. Thus economic recovery will be delayed.

–Prediction number 2: It’s also safe to say that Biden will provide more leadership in the battle versus Covid than Trump has, and he will base his actions on science, not political expediency. In recent days, we have had good news about the development of two new Covid vaccines. To be fair, Trump’s push for the development of a vaccine at “warp speed” probably hastened it’s progress. Of course, it’s now clear that he did this for political gain, not because he cared about the lives of Americans. And let’s not give him too much credit; that would be like congratulating a drunk driver who is weaving down the road and accidently wanders into the correct lane on occasion. Even many people who voted for Trump feel more confidence in Biden in terms of organizing distribution and inoculation efforts. Still, this has been a befuddling virus thus far, and we are learning more about it every day. So stay tuned on this front.

—Prediction number 3: The stock market will do well over the next four years. The market has rebounded significantly since election day, both because of Biden’s election and the Covid vaccine news. It’s not that investors like Democrats more than Republicans; it had more to do with the election removing the cloud of uncertainty that has hovered over Wall Street for so long. The fact is, however, that, over the past forty years, the stock market has performed considerably better under Democratic presidents than under GOP leaders. Here are the numbers by president for the S & P 500 performance since 1980:

Clinton, + 210% improvement

Obama, + 182%

Reagan, + 117%

Bush, Sr., + 51%

Trump, + 45%

Bush, Jr., – 40%

Of course, the stock market is not the entire economy; it is more of an indicator of investor confidence. It does, however, reflect economic growth. And many people, myself included, are dependent on a strong stock market for their retirement incomes. In terms of gross domestic product, which is a more accurate indicator of economic strength, Clinton has a slight edge over Reagan, with the others trailing significantly. All three Democrats (if we include Biden) inherited an economy in serious distress. Both Clinton and Obama, however, handed their successors a robust economy that was getting even stronger. (Few seem to remember that the US was operating on an actual surplus for the last few years of Clinton’s administration—the government was taking in more money than it was spending.) Here’s hoping that Biden can do the same thing.

Moreover, for generations, the Democrats were decried as the “tax and spend” party, while the GOP was seen as the party of financial restraint. From the 1930s to 1980, Democrats dominated the national government, implemented relatively high taxes on the wealthy (when compared to today), regularly paid off government loans, and kept the national debt low. The post-War economy hummed along beautifully under those circumstances until the 1970s. The party positions have been reversed in recent years. Republicans have become the “borrow and spend” party since 1980, spending money at a much higher rate while also cutting taxes for the wealthy and corporations. That means that we have had to borrow much more money in order to function. Then, of course, the US has to repay those enormous loans along with the considerable interest that has accrued along the way. The end result is that our national debt (the amount of money the government owes banks) has grown exponentially, quadrupling in the 12 years of Reagan-Bush leadership alone. That growing debt keeps being pushed forward to the next generation, and, until we get responsible fiscal leaders who will combine spending restraint with a more equitable tax system, the national debt looms over the country like a mushroom cloud.

In the end, as a recent Forbes Magazine article stated, the stock market doesn’t really care who the president is. It does, however, love gridlock.

—Prediction number 4: Gridlock will continue. There are still two senatorial races facing run-off elections in Georgia on January 5th. Despite that, I believe the Republicans will retain control of the Senate. That’s bad news for Progressives in the Democratic party who are hoping for wholesale changes in the political system. It’s good news for investors who do not want to see dramatic changes that could disrupt the economy. As long as the two parties share control in the executive and legislative branches, we will not see any significant new laws, and government will avoid swinging to one extreme or the other. Further, while the Democrats united to defeat Trump, the various branches of the coalition disagree significantly on important issues. Progressives wanting to “defund” the police and other such reforms will be disappointed, because, despite the ridiculous claims by Trump and the GOP that Biden is a dangerous, screaming radical, he is and always has been, squarely in the center on most political issues. He has made a career out of compromising and working with Republicans. There is no reason to believe that his presidency will be any different, despite the pressure he will receive from the left wing of his party. That said, the GOP has become so radicalized by Trump, Fox, Limbaugh, etc., that the party will remain completely unwilling to compromise, despite how much that intransigence hurts the nation. Result: more gridlock.

—Prediction number 5: In the eyes of the world, the US will be stronger and more respected under Biden’s leadership. This is another no-brainer. Trump took a nation that was admired worldwide under Obama, a US that provided leadership on many important issues, and he turned us into a laughingstock. The only country that will be disappointed by Biden’s victory will be Russia, which treated Trump like Putin’s personal lapdog. Within the US, the diplomatic corps, intelligence agencies, FBI, CIA, and military leaders will all breathe a sigh of relief on January 20th. Trump demanded that all of those people use their non-partisan offices to help re-elect the president, rather than do what was best for the security of this nation. He also insulted our fighting men and women and all veterans by saying they were “losers” for fighting to defend their nation. All of that will stop.

Last night, Kathleen and I finished watching the brilliant WWII series, Band of Brothers. We started watching it, for the 2nd or 3rd time, on Veterans Day. If you are not familiar with the series, you owe it to yourself to see it. The ten-part factual history drama follows one unit of American soldiers, from training camp to the end of the war in Europe. Interspliced with the film are interviews with the actual soldiers. The commitment and sacrifice of those men, along with their willingness to put their nation ahead of themselves is astounding. The series is inspiring, emotional, and thought provoking.

During the last two episodes, Hitler is being smashed by the Russians from the east and the Americans and British from the west. There is no longer any hope for a Nazi victory. Rather than give up and admit defeat, however, Hitler orders his elite SS troops to retreat into the Alps and continue fighting a guerilla war—to the death if necessary. Sound familiar?

Our own autocratic, would-be dictator has refused to accept reality. He, too, has ordered his stalwart supporters to fight to the death on his behalf. Thus, we are subjected to frivolous lawsuits that have led even the obsequious Tucker Carlson on Fox to urge Trump to “give it up.” It all came to a ludicrous pinnacle a few days ago when Trump’s $20,000-a-day lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, gave a bizarre press-conference that serves as a metaphor for the entire post-election charade. While making wild accusations (my favorite was the one about a Venezuelan president, dead since 2013, being part of the conspiracy to defeat Trump), without any evidence, of course, Rudy began to literally melt down before our eyes. Not only did his torrent of lies cause him to sweat profusely, but the rivulets of perspiration became mixed with dark-colored hair dye that ran down his face in a grotesque display of the ineptitude of Trump’s doomed attempts to steal the election. Ironically, the president’s efforts to undermine the democratic process before the election led voting officials to employ extra safe-guards against fraud or any other possible corruption. The result was the cleanest and most unimpeachable election in history, which left Trump no avenue through which to overturn the results by fraudulent means.

—Prediction number 6: Despite all misgivings you might be feeling about the Covid crisis and the election, we will get through this. The cavalry (and the vaccine) is on the way, and January 20th will arrive. Finally, remember the example of those brave men depicted in Band of Brothers.  They serve as healthy reminders of what this country is capable of accomplishing when its people are united in purpose and direction.

Covid Summer

We’re approaching the end of summer now, as the fall season officially begins on September 22. The end of one season or the start of another always represent nice break points in the year. Most people just ignore those artificial landmarks and plow on with their lives, satisfied with surviving another season. Others change their smoke-alarm batteries or their heating-system filters on those days each year. The anal-retentive side of me applauds those people, but I usually forget to take such responsible actions. Instead, I like to pause on those milestone days and take stock of the previous season. So, how will I remember the summer of 2020?

Certainly, this has been the strangest year of our lives. When spring officially began back in March, Kathleen and I were returning home from Florida under surreal conditions. The Covid emergency was just beginning, and no one was quite sure what was going to happen next. Most businesses were closing up and we weren’t even sure we would be able to find food, gas, and lodging on our return trip. Despite the fact that numbers of infected were skyrocketing and people around the world were dying by the thousands, our president assured us that, if we just did nothing and removed all restrictions, the virus would magically disappear. Nearly 190,000 American lives later, he is still saying the same thing and continues to provide zero leadership during this national emergency. People often refer to September 11, 2001 as “the day the world changed.” This virus, however, has been much more traumatic and will produce many more life-altering changes than that terrible day at the start of the new century. Still, as they say, life goes on, and everyone has tried to cope with this bizarre situation in their own manner.

Many people have embraced their families as a haven against the storm. Others, forced to work from home while simultaneously teaching school lessons to their children, would probably prefer a little less family. One of the highlights of the summer for me occurred on a night in which the grandchildren were staying overnight with us. Luke (7) and Abigail (10) were sitting at the counter in the kitchen, starting their dinner, and Kathleen went to the refrigerator to get them something to drink. Since we are the grandparents, and our job is to spoil the kids, she agreed to give them a soft drink. She pulled out a two-liter bottle of Sierra Mist and, for some inexplicable reason, began shaking it. I’m not sure if she thought it was some sort of “shake-before-using” fluid made from concentrate, or if she was so engrossed with her conversation with the kids that she forgot what she was doing. But there she was, one of the smartest women I know, moving the bottle of carbonated liquid up and down vigorously. Of course, the predictable happened: when she opened the top, the clear, sugary juice exploded in a volcanic eruption. We’ve all seen this scenario in cartoons or bad sitcoms, where a hapless character just stands there as liquid from a broken faucet or some other source blasts them in the face for an extended period of time. They don’t move away, they are simply immobilized while the dousing goes on and on. A real person would never do that, you might think. Any normal person would quickly move away. Not so, my friends. The kids roared with laughter as the sticky soda shot into Kathleen’s face until its energy was spent and the carbonation subsided. Not only did she not duck away, I swear she actually leaned into it. I must admit that I was laughing right along with the kids. That is, up until I realized who was going to have to clean that viscous mess from the cabinets, floor, and the various items we had on the counter-tops. It took two days and multiple cleanings on my hands and knees before we stopped sticking to the floor. On the bright side, though, the kids have an indelible memory of Nana Henderson from the Covid Summer.

We also remodeled our master bathroom in July. We had planned to tackle the project next year, but moved it up when the shower grout and tile began to crumble, creating water stains on the ceiling below. The room was gutted and everything either re-built or replaced in a 2 ½-week project. Our contractor had already done several things for us in our first months in the duplex/condo, and this, too was excellent work. It cost considerably more than we originally planned to spend, but the end result is a master bath you might find in a high-end hotel, complete with a state-of-the art bidet. As you might guess, the bidet was not my idea. I have to admit, though, that the heated seat is pretty nice. Also, whenever you walk into the room, a light goes on and the outer lid opens up automatically. It’s a nice demonstration of respect. I feel like a Four-Star General walking into a room full of Privates. Also, when I need to . . . do what men do in a bathroom . . . I just reach to the left and press a button, mechanically lifting the seat. No more bending over to raise the lid like some sort of a cave man. Another press of the button lowers it when I’m done. Very civilized.

As the world ground to a halt this summer, the slower pace actually created one of those “stop-and-smell-the roses” moments for me. During my many ambulatory explorations of River Falls, I finally noticed that this town is a hotbed of Little Free Libraries. If you are not familiar with this phenomenon, it is an informal program that began about ten miles from here, in Hudson, Wisconsin, in 2009. Using scrap lumber, a man named Todd Bol built a box in the shape of a schoolhouse on a post, put a few used books in it, and installed it at the end of his driveway. The idea was that anyone who happened by could take book or leave a book in the box in order to encourage recreational reading in an inexpensive way. This simple concept took off, and today there are more than 100,000 of these little boxes registered around the world, with thousands of other, unregistered libraries springing up every day. This summer, I have discovered at least a dozen of these around town. There is a whimsical, serendipitous quality to opening the door and seeing what treasures might be hidden inside. In a regular library, you tend to know what you’re looking for and go to that section of the building. With the LFLs, however, you never know what you’ll find. This summer, I’ve read several books that I stumbled onto in this way. So, if you’re seeking something new to read, look for a little box shaped like a house and take a peek inside. Or drop off one of those books that are just gathering dust in your basement. You might be starting that book on a journey that will take it far from home.

The other thing that has happened recently is that I have started a new job. I have tried golfing this summer with terrible results. I enjoy playing, and I hit just enough good shots to give me hope and bring me back for another round. I finally came to the realization that, if I want to improve, I have to play more often. Golf is an expensive hobby, however, and I can only afford to go out once every other week or so. I also go to the park to hit fairly regularly, but I spend more time looking for my balls in the tall grass than I do hitting them. So, when I saw a pop-up, “now Hiring” ad on the website of the Kilkarney Hills Golf Club a few minutes from my house, I thought it must be fate. During my interview, I was asked why I wanted that particular job. At that moment, I realized that there is a wonderful freedom that accompanies applying for a job that you don’t really need. So I just waxed poetic about how, since my days as an 11-year-old caddy, I have loved the sight of a golf course in the morning, with the silver dew glistening on the green grass. He hired me on the spot. It probably had less to do with the poetry and more to do with the fact that all of his summer employees were returning to high school or college, but I am now gainfully employed once again. I will be working the pro shop, the kitchen, and the bar simultaneously, but it’s a small operation and it should be fun. I even offered to mow the fairways, should my services be required. The best part is that I get to play golf and use the driving range for free as often as I want. Actually, it just dawned on me as I was typing this: I have no idea how much I will be paid. I probably should have asked that during the tense salary negotiations that accompanied my interview. The phrase “minimum wage” springs to mind, but the free golf is the perk I was after.

Okay, so the past three months haven’t been, in the words of an old Nat King Cole song, “Those lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer,” and you may not want to “dust off the sun and moon and sing a song of cheer.” (If you want some campy fun, check out the film clip below of Nat entertaining a bunch of really, really white people.) Most Americans have not been able to take their usual vacations, cruises, or trips to exotic lands. Instead, it has been a summer of simple pleasures, and, for me, the season had its moments. Take a minute to stop and think about what you will remember most from the Covid Summer of 2020.